Settings or data changed. Calculate again before downloading.
Click an item to inspect its monthly sales, forecast, floor and order reason. PO CSV includes every item in the selected store/category scope.
DATA ANALYSIS
Ask your data
AI interpretation + data evidence
Search the uploaded sales and stock, inspect order decisions and preview policy changes. Every answer shows its data scope and supporting records.
AI understands your wording; calculations use your uploaded records. Questions use the selected store and category. Product labels, available months and scope go to OpenAI to interpret the question; up to 30 result rows per comparison are sent for the explanation. Uploads stay in this browser session. API credits are required. Guided analysis works without the API. Missing information is explained rather than invented.
CLIENT POLICY VS AI RECOMMENDATIONS
AI impact
Compare the client’s weighted-average method with Croston + MLP using the same stock, course floors, ABC days and order controls.
Largest estimated PO-value changes shown first. Download includes every changed SKU. A lower suggested PO value is not evidence of savings or better service.
Client what-if scenario
Preview a different demand assumption or coverage policy. Your active order settings stay unchanged.
Client-reported pilot results
Enter observed before/after results for equal-length periods and the same store/SKU scope. These are separate from forecast estimates.
Metric
Before AI
During AI pilot
Entries stay in this browser session. Download the comparison to retain them. Differences are client-reported observations; they do not prove that AI caused the change.
Forecast accuracy from the supplied holdout
The August 2026 holdout is one store and one month. Operational savings, expiry loss and service improvements were not measured in that test.
Calculated inventory limits
First 100 items shown; the download contains every item. Min and Max retain fractional packs unless the indent rounding control is enabled.
Sales contribution
Manufacturers · top 10
Categories · top 10
First 100 ranked items shown. Zero-value and negative-average-value items receive C; negative averages are excluded from the ABC share denominator and flagged in the export.
Demand forecast and replenishment are separate decisions
A forecast estimates expected sales in packs. The policy layer converts that estimate into stock limits and an indent. Every method retains ABC day limits and the client’s master course floor.
Min = max(monthly demand × Min Days ÷ 30, master course floor) Max = max(monthly demand × Max Days ÷ 30, master course floor) Indent = Stock < Min ? max(0, Max − Stock) : 0 Indent Value = Indent × unit cost
The Word document repeats the quantity formula under “Indent Val.” This prototype treats it as a wording error and multiplies indent by cost.
What is implemented
Croston’s Method
Updates average non-zero sale size and the interval between sales separately; forecast = size ÷ interval. α defaults to 0.1. All-zero histories forecast zero. Calculated at monthly frequency because daily data was not supplied.
Classic Croston has bias and does not decay after long runs of zero sales. It does not provide a calibrated service-level confidence interval.
Synth-AI · experimental MLP
A real pooled neural network with two hidden layers (16 and 8 neurons), trained across the supplied Kalyani SKUs. Inputs: three lags, six-month mean and variability, zero frequency, Croston, calendar month, Core, Chronic and course floor.
“Synth-AI” is a working label, not a supplied vendor or pretrained proprietary system. New uploads use these frozen Kalyani weights; retrain and validate before deploying to other stores.
Held-out forecast comparison
Client decisions made visible
Issue
Prototype treatment
Two patients vs one patient for low-selling chronic items
Word mode uses the supplied course floor for every SKU. Workbook mode exposes a one/two-patient choice. Zero-sale Non-Core suppression takes priority in workbook mode.
Core one-customer stock and Non-Core one-strip stock
Workbook mode uses one pack as an editable design assumption through the master floor; patient-specific quantities need a proper SKU master.
On Demand list
98 supplied codes are tagged. Automatic indent is held by default; disable the hold to see the unrestricted recommendation.
Hand-set workbook values and Sun Pharma table
They are historical manual decisions, not inferred rules. The engine recalculates limits; it does not copy those values to future periods. Confirm any manufacturer-specific policy before production.
Missing sales rows
Absent SKU-months within the uploaded history are treated as zero observed sales. Confirm export completeness; missing periods and stockouts can conceal demand.
Missing master records
Non-Core, not Universal Core, no chronic floor. Shown as missing master. The uploaded working sheet replaces the absent separate Core and Universal Core masters.
Pack cost and quantities
Master rate, then arithmetic average batch rate, then zero with a flag. Pack stock is summed across batches; loose units are excluded.
Store identification
Branch code joins the data. KALYAN and KALYANI resolve to 86, although filenames mention 85.
Applying this across 400 stores
Collect daily SKU/store sales, stock availability, receipts, open indents, lead times, expiry batches, promotion and price history.
Pool training across stores, using store and category attributes. Fit demand using only information available before each forecast origin.
Validate rolling origins by store and demand segment; compare WAPE, bias, stockouts, expiry loss and inventory days against the client policy and naive forecasts.
Add inventory position = usable stock + confirmed inbound − reservations; incorporate lead time, review cycle, service targets, pack multiples and expiry caps in the policy layer.
Run in shadow mode, then integrate ERP approval and warehouse allocation. This prototype exports recommendations and does not issue an ERP PO or allocate warehouse stock.
No warehouse availability or open-PO data was supplied. Order value can be understated when cost is missing. This pilot tests calculations; it cannot demonstrate savings across the full network.